基于水足迹的山东省农业水土资源匹配特征及短缺压力分析

高强度农业开发引起的农业水土资源生态问题日益增多,探究粮食及蔬菜（粮蔬）生产中水土资源空间配置及短缺压力对农业资源的可持续利用具有重要意义。从水足迹视角出发,分析了山东省3种主要粮食作物（冬小麦、玉米及大豆）和两种不同种植模式蔬菜（设施蔬菜和露地蔬菜）的生产水足迹空间特征;同时将资源数量及资源质量的概念纳入研究框架,分析了农业水土资源数量及质量匹配格局差异,并进一步探究了农业水土资源短缺压力及其影响因素。研究结果表明：（1）2019年,山东省粮食和蔬菜的生产总水足迹为811亿m³,其中粮食生产总水足迹占比78.50%,蔬菜生产总水足迹占比21.50%;粮蔬生产水足迹受地势影响明显,鲁西北及鲁西南平原地区的粮蔬生产水足迹占比较大。（2）考虑资源数量的水土资源匹配系数均值为0.622×10⁴ m³/hm²,考虑资源质量的匹配系数均值为0.416×10⁴ m³/hm²;水土资源数量及质量匹配系数在空间上呈现出一致性,表明山东省农业生产水土资源空间配置水平高的地区同时面临着较大的农业面源污染压力。（3）整体上,土地资源短缺压力略高于水资源短缺压力;基于生产视角的水土资源短缺压力受生产环境因素制约显著,受经济发展因素的影响具有差异性,社会因素对水土资源短缺压力无显著影响。研究可为农业资源可持续管理提供数据基础,为全面理解粮蔬生产所产生的水土资源短缺提供案例参考。     

中国遥感干旱指数时空特征及其对气候和地表覆盖变化的响应

干旱严重影响植被生长,威胁粮食安全,基于遥感计算的植被状态指数（Vegetation Condition Index,VCI）、温度状态指数（Temperature Condition Index,TCI）和植被健康指数（Vegetation Health Index,VHI）是常用的干旱指数,被广泛应用于干旱监测。为了探究近年来我国干旱特征及其对气候和地表覆盖变化的响应,分析了2003-2016年期间VCI、TCI和VHI的时空变化特征;采用最小二乘（OLS）和偏相关分析方法分析了这些指数对气候和地表覆盖变化的响应。基于上述干旱指数计算的干旱频率表明,中温带中部和南温带等地区干旱发生频率高,干旱指数变化趋势表明在2003-2016年期间中国大部分地区干旱缓解,但在中温带、南温带和高原气候区等局部地区干旱加剧;总体而言,干旱指数随着年平均温度的上升和年降水量的降低而减小,VHI与温度和降水量的相关性在不同气候区的一致性优于VCI和TCI;裸土的减少和植被的增加导致干旱指数增大,树木转变为低矮植被干旱指数降低。     

基于土地多功能的黄土丘陵沟壑区生态保护与发展情景评估及多主体模拟

黄土高原丘陵沟壑区生态环境脆弱,近几十年生态保护工程的实施带来显著的生态恢复效果,也对农户的生计策略与区域粮食安全产生了影响。刻画生态脆弱区人-地系统复杂响应过程,可以为区域可持续的土地利用管理模式提供依据。研究从土地多功能出发,着眼于黄土丘陵沟壑区河谷川地、梁峁区域、黄土塬地、土石山地以及城郊区域等不同的典型地貌类型与代表区域,采用多层次利益相关者参与式的评估框架,以农户的耕地利用行为及生态工程影响与未来发展为切入点,设置惯性发展情景、发展优先兼顾生态情景、农业优先兼顾生态情景以及生态优先兼顾发展情景,构建多智能体模型对区域土地利用与土地多功能的时空变化开展模拟。主要结果表明：(1)生态优先兼顾发展情景综合影响最高且对各维度影响相对均衡,而农业优先兼顾生态情景对区域土地的经济维度的功能和社会维度具有更为明显的提升效应;(2)根据土地多功能空间变化模拟结果,区域土地利用破碎化明显且耕地的撂荒对全域土地多功能均表现出明显的限制作用,农业优先兼顾生态情景中土地功能发生下降的面积最少;(3)发生土地功能下降的区域主要分布在土地质量较差、坡度处于5—15°范围内、地形起伏度较大以及距离道路较远...     

长三角地区植被覆盖演变城乡差异及其原因

城市生态环境和城市化之间的关系是城市可持续发展的关键。研究不同城市化水平下植被覆盖的长时间演变趋势,对理解城市化过程对植被生长动态的影响,城市更新以及推进城市绿化的科学管理具有重要意义。然而,目前对城市内部沿城乡梯度植被生长趋势差异的认识还比较有限。以我国城市化发展最为强烈的长三角地区为研究对象,基于2000-2020年长三角归一化植被指数数据,采用趋势分析和地理探测器方法,探究了长三角地区城市内部植被覆盖演变城乡差异,并从土地利用/覆被变化和城市化发展的角度解析其成因。研究结果表明：（1）2000-2020年长三角地区植被总体呈绿化趋势,植被明显绿化占最大比例（52.06%）,轻微绿化与稳定不变地区占31.68%,零星分布的褐化区占6.82%。（2）城市老城区植被覆盖变化总体呈现返绿趋势（0.016/10 a）,新城区褐化明显（-0.019/10 a）,农郊区绿化突出（0.023/10 a）。在上海、南京和杭州等人口城市化水平较高的城市中,老城区土地利用变化强度最高,其绿化趋势也最高,体现了城市更新过程对绿地空间的促进作用;而在人口城市化水平相对较低的宣城、蚌埠和阜阳等城市,土地利用变化强度相对较低的农郊区也呈现明显的绿化趋势,更多的是受到区域生态保护的影响。（3）土地城市化是长三角地区老城区和新城区植被覆盖变化的主导因子,而城市化因子对农郊区解释程度总体不显著。从长三角总体区域看,城镇人口比重、不透水面积/总面积以及地区生产总值三者对植被覆盖演变存在显著影响,其中城镇人口比重影响最大。     

基于遗传算法的土地利用优化：NSGA-Ⅱ和NSGA-Ⅲ的对比研究

土地利用优化通常要兼顾不同群体的多种要求,理论上是复杂的超多目标(4个及以上)优化问题。但实际操作中却往往被简化为多目标(2—3个)优化问题,通过一种流行的多目标优化算法第Ⅱ代非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)求解。究其原因是对超多目标优化算法认知的缺失和与多目标优化算法理论对比的匮乏。对NSGA系列中应用最广泛的多目标优化算法NSGA-Ⅱ和最新提出、面向超多目标优化的算法NSGA-Ⅲ进行探究,从理论和实验两方面对Ⅲ和Ⅱ进行对比,从而探究二者进行土地利用优化时的优劣。在理论上,对比两种算法原理的异同。在实验中,分别设计多目标(3个目标)和超多目标(13个目标)土地利用优化问题,利用两种算法进行求解。对实验结果采用四层架构、六大指标进行全面评价,以对比两种算法的可用性。理论对比发现,两个算法只有种群多样性保护的方法不同,其中NSGA-Ⅲ是基于与固定的参考点的距离,而NSGA-Ⅱ则是基于相邻解间的距离。通过实验对比发现,NSGA-Ⅲ在超多目标优化时运算速度快,且产生的最优方案实用价值更高,NSGA-Ⅱ在算法的有效性方面更有优势。     

宁夏河东沙区刺槐和丝绵木水分利用策略

刺槐和丝绵木混交林是宁夏河东沙区防护林建设的主要模式,了解刺槐和丝绵木的水分利用策略,能为区域植被恢复和防护林林分结构调整提供科学依据。以宁夏河东沙区刺槐(Robinia pseudoacacia)和丝绵木(Euonymus bungeanus)混交林为研究对象,通过监测微气象、树干液流和土壤质量含水量,结合大气降水、土壤水、植物木质部水同位素组成,采用Granier及其校正公式,运用贝叶斯混合模型(MixSIAR)和相似性比例指数(PS)研究2个树种的蒸腾耗水、水分来源和水分利用关系。结果表明：刺槐和丝绵木的蒸腾耗水量在生长季中期较高,前期和后期较小,刺槐的蒸腾耗水量是丝绵木的1.55倍;影响刺槐蒸腾耗水的主要环境因子为饱和水汽压差、太阳辐射、0—40 cm土壤质量含水量和40—120 cm土壤质量含水量;影响丝绵木蒸腾耗水的主要环境因子为饱和水汽压差、太阳辐射、平均气温、0—40 cm土壤质量含水量和40—120 cm土壤质量含水量;蒸腾耗水较高时,刺槐主要吸收利用中层土壤水,丝绵木主要吸收利用浅层土壤水,蒸腾耗水较低时,刺槐主要吸收利用浅层土壤水,丝绵木主要吸收利用中层土壤水;在...     

Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungal Colonization at Different Succession Stages in Songnen Saline-Alkali Grassland

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi can form symbiosis with 90% of the vascular plants and play important roles in ecosystem. To realize the AM fungal colonization at different succession stages in saline-alkali land and screen AM fungi species with great functions, roots and soil samples were collected from the three succession stages of Songnen saline-alkali grassland. The soil properties and AM fungal colonization were measured, and the fungus distributed extensively in three stages was annotated by sequencing for AML1/AML2 target, subsequently, maize was selected as the host to verify its colonization. The results showed that the soil properties improved with the succession of saline-alkali grassland. The plants’ communities of the three stages could be colonized by AM fungi, and the colonization rate of Leymus chinensis (the third stage) ranged from 66.67% to 100%, Puccinellia tenuiflora (the second stage) ranged from 50% to 80%, while the Suaeda glauca (the first stage) was only 35%–60%. Glomeraceae sp1 was identified as the dominant AM fungi species which occurred frequently in the succession of saline-alkali land with the isolation frequency, relative abundance, and importance value of 100%, 18.1%, and 59.1%, respectively. The colonization rate of Glomeraceae sp1 in maize ranged from 80% to 87% and similar mycorrhizal characteristics were detected in the roots of P. tenuiflora, S. glauca, and L. chinensis, indicating that Glomeraceae sp1 colonized the samples in the field. The correlation matrix indicated that colonization rate, colonization intensity, and vesicle abundance were closely related to soil conditions most, and they were related significantly to all the soil properties except cellulase activity. Besides, redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that soil properties drove the changes of AM fungal colonization and sporulation. These results will provide theoretical support for realizing the relationship between AM fungal colonization and soil conditions, and also for the exploration of AM fungi species with great functions.

     

BLOEM: A spatially explicit model of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage,applied to Brazil

Bioenergy could play a major role in decarbonizing energy systems in the context of the Paris Agreement. Large-scale bioenergy deployment could be related to sustainability issues and requires major infrastructure investments. It, therefore, needs to be studied carefully. The Bioenergy and Land Optimization Spatially Explicit Model (BLOEM) presented here allows for assessing different bioenergy pathways while encompassing various dimensions that influence their optimal deployment. In this study, BLOEM was applied to the Brazilian context by coupling it with the Brazilian Land Use and Energy Systems (BLUES) model. This allowed investigating the most cost-effective ways of attending future bioenergy supply projections and studying the role of recovered degraded pasture lands in improving land availability in a sustainable and competitive manner. The results show optimizing for limiting deforestation and minimizing logistics costs results in different outcomes. It also indicates that recovering degraded pasture lands is attractive from both logistics and climate perspectives. The systemic approach of BLOEM provides spatial results, highlighting the trade-offs between crop allocation, land use and the logistics dynamics between production, conversion, and demand, providing valuable insights for regional and national climate policy design. This makes it a useful tool for mapping sustainable bioenergy value chain pathways.     

Doubling protected land area may be inefficient at preserving the extent of undeveloped land and could cause substantial regional shifts in land use

Projection of land use and land-cover change is highly uncertain yet drives critical estimates of carbon emissions, climate change, and food and bioenergy production. We use new, spatially explicit land availability data in conjunction with a model sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of additional land protection on land use and land cover. The land availability data include protected land and agricultural suitability and is incorporated into the Moirai land data system for initializing the Global Change Analysis Model. Overall, decreasing land availability is relatively inefficient at preserving undeveloped land while having considerable regional land-use impacts. Current amounts of protected area have little effect on land and crop production estimates, but including the spatial distribution of unsuitable (i.e., unavailable) land dramatically shifts bioenergy production from high northern latitudes to the rest of the world, compared with uniform availability. This highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in understanding and managing land change. Approximately doubling the current protected area to emulate a 30% protected area target may avoid land conversion by 2050 of less than half the newly protected extent while reducing bioenergy feedstock land by 10.4% and cropland and grazed pasture by over 3%. Regional bioenergy land may be reduced (increased) by up to 46% (36%), cropland reduced by up to 61%, pasture reduced by up to 100%, and harvested forest reduced by up to 35%. Only a few regions show notable gains in some undeveloped land types of up to 36%. Half of the regions can reach the target using only unsuitable land, which would minimize impacts on agriculture but may not meet conservation goals. Rather than focusing on an area target, a more robust approach may be to carefully select newly protected land to meet well-defined conservation goals while minimizing impacts to agriculture.     

Snail diversity, abundance and distribution in Arabuko Sokoke forest, Kenya

This study sought to investigate land‐snail diversity, abundance and distribution in Arabuko Sokoke forest. Sampling was done using standard timed direct search and litter sample methods. In total, 25 species and 1263 specimens were recorded. The 25 species rank Arabuko Sokoke forest as the second richest coastal forest in land snails in East Africa. The 25 species, however, are not uniformly distributed across the forest. The majority of the snails were localized with low levels of abundance. Eight species were restricted to one forest type, whereas those shared among forest types tended to concentrate in one forest type. Only five species, Gulella radius, Gulella foveolata, Gonaxis kibweziensis, Pseudoglessula biovini and Opeas gracilis, were widespread. The highest snail diversity was recorded in the mixed forest, implying that special conservation of this habitat is necessary for retention of the broadest molluscan diversity. The observation that some species rare in the mixed forest were recorded in excess from Brachystegia and Cynometra forest, further suggests that conservation of the entire A. Sokoke forest is critical for efficient molluscan conservation. Species recorded in low levels of abundance are probably declining and investigation on the snails' ecology to understand factors that influence the snails' diversity is recommended.